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Chicago RS W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 21:00

Chicago RS W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Utah Royals W

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-117.0%0-215.6%0-39.6%0-4+6.7%1 1-05.0%1-19.2%1-28.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-01.4%2-12.5%2-22.3%2-31.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.9% 18.2% 5.50 -17.4%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 65.7% 65.4% 1.53 +0.5%

Over 2.5 49.7% 56.5% 1.77 -12.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.9% 2.95 -9.0%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 26.7% 3.75 +24.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 61.7% 1.62 -19.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.5%

A 66% / xG 0.5-1.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.6%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 0–3 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago RS W0.5

Utah Royals W1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO RS W · PPG 1.00

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 1.71

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Chicago RS W (H) 12.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -17.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Utah Royals W (A) 65.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago RS W face Utah Royals W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago RS W a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Utah Royals W 66%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Chicago RS W and 1.8 for Utah Royals W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago RS W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Utah Royals W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.9%.

Chicago RS W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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