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N. Carolina W vs Seattle Reign W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:30

N. Carolina W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Seattle Reign W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.6%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.5%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 58.8% 1.70 -12.4%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Over 2.5 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

BTTS 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Home O1.5 43.2% 55.6% 1.80 -22.2%

Away O1.5 23.8% 29.9% 3.35 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -3.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

N. Carolina W1.4

Seattle Reign W0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

N. CAROLINA W · PPG 1.40

SEATTLE REIGN W · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

N. Carolina W (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -12.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Seattle Reign W (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

N. Carolina W face Seattle Reign W in USA - NWSL Women on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives N. Carolina W a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Seattle Reign W 23%, so N. Carolina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for N. Carolina W and 0.9 for Seattle Reign W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, N. Carolina W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Seattle Reign W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-1.

N. Carolina W vs Seattle Reign W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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