Today / USA - NWSL Women / Denver Summit W vs KC Current W

Denver Summit W vs KC Current W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 01:30

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

UPCOMING

KC Current W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-110.9%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 39.2% 2.55 +32.1%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 23.6% 41.7% 2.40 -26.0%

Over 2.5 54.9% 58.8% 1.70 -6.7%

Over 3.5 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

BTTS 55.6% 64.5% 1.55 -13.8%

Home O1.5 53.7% 46.5% 2.15 +15.4%

Away O1.5 35.9% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denver Summit W1.8

KC Current W1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.33

KC CURRENT W · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=51.8%

Win probability 1X2

Denver Summit W (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +32.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

KC Current W (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Denver Summit W face KC Current W in USA - NWSL Women on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 52% chance, the draw 25% and KC Current W 24%, so Denver Summit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Denver Summit W and 1.1 for KC Current W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for KC Current W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.0%.

Denver Summit W vs KC Current W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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