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San Diego W. W vs Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 00:45

San Diego W. W logo
San Diego W. W
PPG 1.50 · HOME
2 – 0
FULL TIME
Gotham FC W logo
Gotham FC W
PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-117.1%0-27.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.7%1-113.0%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.5%2-14.9%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.4%3-11.2%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%
Draw 32.2% 32.3% 3.10 -0.2%
Away win 36.2% 40.8% 2.45 -11.3%
Over 2.5 34.9% 46.5% 2.15 -25.0%
Over 3.5 18.0% 25.3% 3.95 -17.3%
BTTS 46.5% 54.6% 1.83 -14.9%
Home O1.5 33.7% 36.4% 2.75 -7.3%
Away O1.5 23.8% 39.2% 2.55 -23.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-0
xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%
#2 0–1 17.1%
#3 1–1 13.0%
#4 1–0 14.7%
#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego W. W0.8
Gotham FC W0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO W. W · PPG 1.50

GOTHAM FC W · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

San Diego W. W (H) 31.6%
ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.7%
Draw 32.2%
ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.2%
Gotham FC W (A) 36.2%
ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego W. W face Gotham FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego W. W a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Gotham FC W 36%, so Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for San Diego W. W and 0.9 for Gotham FC W (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego W. W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.25 for Gotham FC W. This match finished 2-0.

PredictVantage

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