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Gotham FC W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Gotham FC W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-18.5%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.1%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-17.2%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 78.1% 1.28 -33.1%

Draw 27.1% 22.2% 4.50 +13.2%

Away win 20.6% 10.0% 10.00 +63.6%

Over 2.5 34.0% 56.5% 1.77 -39.8%

Over 3.5 20.3% 33.9% 2.95 -24.1%

BTTS 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Home O1.5 37.6% 69.4% 1.44 -45.9%

Away O1.5 10.0% 17.4% 5.75 -25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.8%

#2 0–0 15.9%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gotham FC W1.3

Houston Dash W0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOTHAM FC W · PPG 1.50

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Gotham FC W (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -33.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +13.2%

Houston Dash W (A) 20.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +63.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gotham FC W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gotham FC W a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Houston Dash W 21%, so Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gotham FC W and 0.5 for Houston Dash W (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gotham FC W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Houston Dash W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Gotham FC W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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