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Angel City W vs N. Carolina W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 23:00

Angel City W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

N. Carolina W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.3%0-25.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.0%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.3%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 34.7% 2.88 +8.6%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 35.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.8%

Over 2.5 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Over 3.5 27.8% 29.0% 3.45 -2.5%

BTTS 51.9% 57.8% 1.73 -10.2%

Home O1.5 36.1% 37.7% 2.65 -4.3%

Away O1.5 30.8% 44.4% 2.25 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.9%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angel City W1.3

N. Carolina W1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.50

N. CAROLINA W · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Angel City W (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +8.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

N. Carolina W (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angel City W face N. Carolina W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angel City W a 38% chance, the draw 27% and N. Carolina W 35%, so Angel City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Angel City W and 1.1 for N. Carolina W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angel City W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.60 for N. Carolina W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Angel City W vs N. Carolina W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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