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Miami FC vs Birmingham L. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Birmingham L.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.3%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.4%1-111.4%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 42.6% 2.35 -1.1%

Draw 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

Away win 33.5% 38.5% 2.60 -12.9%

Over 2.5 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Over 3.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

BTTS 60.0% 64.5% 1.55 -7.0%

Home O1.5 45.2% 48.8% 2.05 -7.3%

Away O1.5 39.8% 45.5% 2.20 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.0%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.6

Birmingham L.1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.67

BIRMINGHAM L. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -1.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.5%

Birmingham L. (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Birmingham L. in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Birmingham L. 34%, so Miami FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Miami FC and 1.4 for Birmingham L. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Birmingham L..

Miami FC vs Birmingham L. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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