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Rhode Island vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Orange County

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.5%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.6%1-111.5%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 62.5% 1.60 -27.8%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -3.5%

Away win 30.1% 21.1% 4.75 +43.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 56.5% 1.77 +7.8%

Over 3.5 38.4% 33.9% 2.95 +13.3%

BTTS 62.1% 57.1% 1.75 +8.7%

Home O1.5 43.2% 59.9% 1.67 -27.9%

Away O1.5 39.8% 29.0% 3.45 +37.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island1.5

Orange County1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.50

ORANGE COUNTY · PPG 1.88

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -27.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.5%

Orange County (A) 30.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +43.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Orange County in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Orange County 30%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rhode Island and 1.3 for Orange County (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.88 for Orange County. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +43.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Rhode Island vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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