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Indy Eleven vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 20:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Charleston

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.5%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.9%1-111.1%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 39.2% 2.55 +15.0%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 31.7% 43.5% 2.30 -27.1%

Over 2.5 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Over 3.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 53.6% 47.6% 2.10 +12.6%

Away O1.5 39.8% 51.3% 1.95 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0✓ 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven1.7

Charleston1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.67

CHARLESTON · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=45.1%

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +15.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Charleston (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Charleston in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Charleston 32%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Indy Eleven and 1.3 for Charleston (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Charleston. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Indy Eleven vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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