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Tampa Bay vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 22:00

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lexington

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-16.8%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-111.2%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Draw 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

Away win 22.7% 21.1% 4.75 +4.7%

Over 2.5 49.7% 58.8% 1.70 -15.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

BTTS 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

Home O1.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 30.8% 3.25 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay1.6

Lexington0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.00

LEXINGTON · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -15.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.9%

Lexington (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Lexington 23%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tampa Bay and 0.7 for Lexington (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 1-4.

Tampa Bay vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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