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San Antonio vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 01:00

San Antonio

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.8%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-19.6%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.4%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 54.1% 1.85 +6.4%

Draw 22.4% 29.9% 3.35 -15.0%

Away win 20.1% 26.7% 3.75 -14.8%

Over 2.5 54.4% 51.8% 1.93 +5.0%

Over 3.5 35.1% 30.3% 3.30 +15.8%

BTTS 52.8% 57.1% 1.75 -7.6%

Home O1.5 54.7% 51.8% 1.93 +5.6%

Away O1.5 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Antonio2.0

Monterey Bay0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 2.33

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.17

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

San Antonio (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +6.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.0%

Monterey Bay (A) 20.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Antonio face Monterey Bay in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Antonio a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 20%, so San Antonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for San Antonio and 0.8 for Monterey Bay (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Antonio are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.17 for Monterey Bay. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 0-0.

San Antonio vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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