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FC Tulsa vs Sacramento R. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 00:30

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sacramento R.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-111.6%0-24.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.4%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-12.8%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 40.0% 2.50 +11.3%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -7.4%

Away win 27.2% 37.7% 2.65 -16.8%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.4% 25.3% 3.95 -4.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 35.2% 39.2% 2.55 -10.2%

Away O1.5 22.5% 37.7% 2.65 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tulsa1.1

Sacramento R.0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TULSA · PPG 1.57

SACRAMENTO R. · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

FC Tulsa (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.4%

Sacramento R. (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tulsa face Sacramento R. in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tulsa a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Sacramento R. 27%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FC Tulsa and 0.8 for Sacramento R. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tulsa are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Sacramento R.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.3%.

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento R. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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