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Loudoun Utd vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 23:30

Loudoun Utd

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.5%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.7%1-19.2%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.4%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 63.7% 1.57 -20.6%

Draw 21.9% 25.3% 3.95 -8.1%

Away win 27.6% 20.8% 4.80 +19.5%

Over 2.5 66.7% 65.4% 1.53 +2.1%

Over 3.5 43.9% 42.6% 2.35 +3.2%

BTTS 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Home O1.5 56.8% 66.7% 1.50 -14.8%

Away O1.5 39.8% 34.5% 2.90 +15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -0.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun Utd2.0

Sporting JAX1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 0.71

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.71) > Away POOR (0.14)

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun Utd (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -20.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.1%

Sporting JAX (A) 27.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun Utd face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun Utd a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Sporting JAX 28%, so Loudoun Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Loudoun Utd and 1.4 for Sporting JAX (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun Utd are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.14 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%.

Loudoun Utd vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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