Today / USA - USL Championship / Colorado S. vs Phoenix Rising

Colorado S. vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 01:00

Colorado S.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.3%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.4%1-110.9%1-27.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.2%3-15.4%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 59.5% 1.68 -19.2%

Draw 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -6.3%

Away win 27.4% 23.1% 4.33 +11.2%

Over 2.5 60.9% 60.6% 1.65 +0.5%

Over 3.5 37.1% 38.5% 2.60 -3.5%

BTTS 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 61.7% 1.62 -13.2%

Away O1.5 39.8% 34.5% 2.90 +15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado S.1.7

Phoenix Rising1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO S. · PPG 1.33

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Colorado S. (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -19.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.3%

Phoenix Rising (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado S. face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado S. a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Phoenix Rising 27%, so Colorado S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Colorado S. and 1.3 for Phoenix Rising (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado S. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.14 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Colorado S. vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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