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New Mexico vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 01:30

New Mexico

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.5%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.7%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 40.8% 2.45 +12.7%

Draw 26.0% 28.6% 3.50 -5.4%

Away win 28.0% 40.8% 2.45 -18.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 60.6% 1.65 -10.7%

Over 3.5 33.2% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

BTTS 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Home O1.5 43.6% 48.8% 2.05 -10.6%

Away O1.5 39.8% 48.8% 2.05 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.9%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Mexico1.6

Oakland Roots1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW MEXICO · PPG 1.83

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

New Mexico (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +12.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.4%

Oakland Roots (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

New Mexico face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Mexico a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Oakland Roots 28%, so New Mexico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for New Mexico and 1.3 for Oakland Roots (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Mexico are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.50 for Oakland Roots. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 2-1.

New Mexico vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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