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Las Vegas L. vs El Paso Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas L.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

El Paso

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.2%0-24.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.6%1-19.4%1-27.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.1%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 42.9% 2.33 +2.1%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 33.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

BTTS 62.1% 67.6% 1.48 -8.1%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 47.6% 2.10 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.1%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas L.1.8

El Paso1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS L. · PPG 1.83

EL PASO · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas L. (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +2.1%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

El Paso (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas L. face El Paso in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas L. a 44% chance, the draw 23% and El Paso 33%, so Las Vegas L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Las Vegas L. and 1.7 for El Paso (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas L. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.57 for El Paso. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Las Vegas L. vs El Paso Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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