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Pittsburgh vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Brooklyn FC

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.0%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-19.8%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-16.4%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-14.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 66.7% 1.50 -13.8%

Draw 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 20.1% 16.7% 6.00 +12.4%

Over 2.5 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

BTTS 52.8% 54.6% 1.83 -3.4%

Home O1.5 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh2.0

Brooklyn FC0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH · PPG 2.40

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

Brooklyn FC (A) 20.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh face Brooklyn FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Brooklyn FC 20%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Pittsburgh and 0.8 for Brooklyn FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.33 for Brooklyn FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Pittsburgh vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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