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Deportivo Maipu vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 19:30

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Agropecuario

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+17.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.3%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.7%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 47.6% 2.10 +17.8%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 19.6% 28.6% 3.50 -18.8%

Over 2.5 49.7% 40.8% 2.45 +21.8%

Over 3.5 28.8% 22.2% 4.50 +17.8%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 40.8% 2.45 +31.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.7

Agropecuario0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 1.78

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 56.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +17.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Agropecuario (A) 19.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Agropecuario 20%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.7 for Agropecuario (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.8%.

Deportivo Maipu vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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