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Colegiales vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 18:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-111.1%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.0%1-111.8%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-16.2%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.2%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Draw 31.3% 36.4% 2.75 -13.9%

Away win 19.9% 20.0% 5.00 -0.3%

Over 2.5 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

Over 3.5 17.8% 14.3% 7.00 +14.8%

BTTS 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

Home O1.5 35.2% 39.2% 2.55 -10.2%

Away O1.5 18.0% 18.2% 5.50 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 1–0 21.0%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales1.1

Gimnasia y Tiro0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.33

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -9.5%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.9%

Gimnasia y Tiro (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face Gimnasia y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Gimnasia y Tiro 20%, so Colegiales are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Colegiales and 0.6 for Gimnasia y Tiro (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.63 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Colegiales vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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