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Chaco For Ever vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 18:30

Chaco For Ever

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Acassuso

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-111.7%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.7%2-17.1%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.6%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 45.5% 2.20 +0.3%

Draw 29.4% 35.7% 2.80 -10.6%

Away win 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -8.3%

Over 2.5 38.6% 35.7% 2.80 +8.1%

Over 3.5 19.0% 16.7% 6.00 +8.4%

BTTS 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

Home O1.5 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.3% 3.95 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chaco For Ever1.1

Acassuso0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 1.00

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Chaco For Ever (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.3%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.6%

Acassuso (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chaco For Ever face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chaco For Ever a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Acassuso 25%, so Chaco For Ever are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chaco For Ever and 0.7 for Acassuso (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chaco For Ever are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.56 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.4%.

Chaco For Ever vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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