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Central Norte vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 19:30

Central Norte

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Miguel

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.0%0-113.4%0-24.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.8%2-15.9%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 27.9% — — —

Over 2.5 34.9% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 33.8% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.0%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Norte0.9

San Miguel0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 1.25

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Central Norte (H) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Miguel (A) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Norte face San Miguel in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Norte a 40% chance, the draw 32% and San Miguel 28%, so Central Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Central Norte and 0.7 for San Miguel (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Norte are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for San Miguel.

Central Norte vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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