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SM San Juan vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Sunday, July 5, 2026

SM San Juan

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chacarita J.

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-17.0%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-111.0%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 20.1% — — —

Over 2.5 47.1% — — —

Over 3.5 28.2% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 44.7% — — —

Away O1.5 19.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM San Juan1.6

Chacarita J.0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 1.88

CHACARITA J. · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Win probability 1X2

SM San Juan (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chacarita J. (A) 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM San Juan face Chacarita J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM San Juan a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Chacarita J. 20%, so SM San Juan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SM San Juan and 0.6 for Chacarita J. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM San Juan are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.25 for Chacarita J..

SM San Juan vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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