Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Ferro Carril vs San Telmo

Ferro Carril vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 18:30

Ferro Carril

PPG 1.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Telmo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.9%0-110.5%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-16.2%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.2%3-12.2%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 62.5% 1.60 -20.3%

Draw 29.9% 31.3% 3.20 -2.6%

Away win 20.3% 16.7% 6.00 +13.1%

Over 2.5 34.9% 39.2% 2.55 -11.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

BTTS 44.6% 42.6% 2.35 +4.8%

Home O1.5 35.2% 48.8% 2.05 -27.8%

Away O1.5 18.0% 17.4% 5.75 +2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 50% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.9%

#2 1–0 21.6%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril1.1

San Telmo0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 1.63

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=49.8%

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -20.3%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.6%

San Telmo (A) 20.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 50% chance, the draw 30% and San Telmo 20%, so Ferro Carril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ferro Carril and 0.5 for San Telmo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.75 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Ferro Carril vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions