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Midland vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 19:00

Midland

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.8%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-112.1%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 42.9% 2.33 +7.9%

Draw 25.5% 35.1% 2.85 -16.4%

Away win 28.2% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

Over 2.5 49.8% 40.8% 2.45 +22.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 22.2% 4.50 +17.8%

BTTS 52.8% 51.3% 1.95 +3.0%

Home O1.5 43.2% 38.5% 2.60 +12.3%

Away O1.5 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.6

Gimnasia Jujuy0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 1.89

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +7.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.4%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnasia Jujuy 28%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Midland and 0.9 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.22 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Midland vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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