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Patronato vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.7%0-113.7%0-24.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-112.1%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.8%2-15.3%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 43.5% 2.30 +0.1%

Draw 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

Away win 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

Over 2.5 31.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.1%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -9.2%

BTTS 44.6% 44.4% 2.25 +0.4%

Home O1.5 33.7% 34.5% 2.90 -2.3%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.7%

#2 1–0 19.9%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.9

SM Tucuman0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.44

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -10.9%

SM Tucuman (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 44% chance, the draw 33% and SM Tucuman 24%, so Patronato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Patronato and 0.6 for SM Tucuman (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Patronato vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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