Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / D. Madryn vs Colon Santa Fe

D. Madryn vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 18:00

D. Madryn

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.7%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.6%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 44.4% 2.25 +1.7%

Draw 27.9% 35.1% 2.85 -12.3%

Away win 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Over 2.5 47.1% 37.7% 2.65 +24.8%

Over 3.5 27.6% 16.7% 6.00 +39.4%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 42.8% 37.0% 2.70 +15.6%

Away O1.5 23.8% 27.0% 3.70 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 147 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -11.1%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Madryn1.3

Colon Santa Fe0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MADRYN · PPG 1.78

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

D. Madryn (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.7%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.3%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Madryn face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Madryn a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Colon Santa Fe 27%, so D. Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. Madryn and 0.9 for Colon Santa Fe (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Madryn are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.11 for Colon Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.4%.

D. Madryn vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions