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Macara vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 18:00

Macara

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU Quito

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-115.8%0-27.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.0%2-15.6%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 32.8% 3.05 -3.9%

Draw 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Away win 38.5% 42.7% 2.34 -9.9%

Over 2.5 38.6% 44.4% 2.25 -13.2%

Over 3.5 19.0% 23.8% 4.20 -12.1%

BTTS 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Away O1.5 23.8% 40.0% 2.50 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.8%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara0.8

LDU Quito0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.38

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -3.9%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

LDU Quito (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face LDU Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 32% chance, the draw 30% and LDU Quito 39%, so LDU Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Macara and 0.9 for LDU Quito (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.63 for LDU Quito. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Macara vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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