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LDU Quito vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Saturday, May 30, 2026, 21:30

LDU Quito

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orense

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-113.1%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-16.9%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 67.6% 1.48 -40.9%

Draw 31.4% 23.3% 4.30 +35.0%

Away win 28.7% 16.0% 6.25 +47.6%

Over 2.5 39.4% 54.6% 1.83 -27.9%

Over 3.5 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

BTTS 47.2% 51.8% 1.93 -8.9%

Home O1.5 27.4% 61.7% 1.62 -33.4%

Away O1.5 22.4% 22.2% 4.50 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito1.0

Orense0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.57

ORENSE · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 39.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -40.9%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +35.0%

Orense (A) 28.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +47.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Orense in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Orense 29%, so LDU Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for LDU Quito and 0.9 for Orense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Orense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.6%.

LDU Quito vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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