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Emelec vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 23:10

Emelec

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

U. Catolica

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.2%0-28.8%0-33.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.0%2-16.1%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.5%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 36.2% 2.76 -10.3%

Draw 30.5% 30.3% 3.30 +0.7%

Away win 37.0% 40.3% 2.48 -8.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 27.7% 26.3% 3.80 +3.2%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 23.7% 37.7% 2.65 -22.3%

Away O1.5 34.8% 40.8% 2.45 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–0✓ 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec0.9

U. Catolica1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.75

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -10.3%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +0.7%

U. Catolica (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face U. Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 33% chance, the draw 31% and U. Catolica 37%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Emelec and 1.2 for U. Catolica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.29 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Emelec vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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