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Mushuc Runa vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 18:00

Mushuc Runa

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aucas

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-111.7%0-26.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.5%2-17.7%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 38.5% 2.60 -2.5%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Away win 35.3% 38.5% 2.60 -8.2%

Over 2.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Over 3.5 27.9% 28.2% 3.55 -0.6%

BTTS 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Home O1.5 31.9% 40.8% 2.45 -21.8%

Away O1.5 27.3% 40.8% 2.45 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.8%

H 38% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0✓ 11.4%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa1.1

Aucas1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 1.88

AUCAS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -2.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Aucas (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Aucas 35%, so Mushuc Runa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mushuc Runa and 1.0 for Aucas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.29 for Aucas. This match finished 0-0.

Mushuc Runa vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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