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Emelec vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 20:30

Emelec

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Macara

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-115.7%0-26.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.3%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.4%2-15.6%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.8%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 57.8% 1.73 -39.1%

Draw 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

Away win 31.8% 20.6% 4.85 +54.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 9.5% 23.8% 4.20 -36.1%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–0 15.3%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec0.8

Macara0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.57

MACARA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 35.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -39.1%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +15.5%

Macara (A) 31.8%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +54.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Macara 32%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Emelec and 0.9 for Macara (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.33 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Emelec vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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