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Delfin vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 23:10

Delfin

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Barcelona SC

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.5%0-119.8%0-26.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-110.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.4%2-12.9%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.8%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Draw 42.4% 32.8% 3.05 +29.3%

Away win 29.7% 40.8% 2.45 -16.3%

Over 2.5 23.8% 37.7% 2.65 -22.2%

Over 3.5 3.3% 19.0% 5.25 -49.6%

BTTS 32.7% 47.6% 2.10 -31.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.7%

D 42% / xG 0.5-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.5%

#2 0–1 19.8%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin0.5

Barcelona SC0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN · PPG 1.86

BARCELONA SC · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=27.9%

Win probability 1X2

Delfin (H) 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Draw 42.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +29.3%

Barcelona SC (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin a 28% chance, the draw 42% and Barcelona SC 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Delfin and 0.6 for Barcelona SC (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.86 for Barcelona SC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Delfin vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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