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Manta vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

Manta

PPG 0.57 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Libertad

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-120.7%0-28.6%0-32.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.0%1-111.6%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.9%2-13.2%2-21.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.7%3-10.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 42.7% 2.34 -25.9%

Draw 37.9% 31.3% 3.20 +21.3%

Away win 37.8% 32.8% 3.05 +15.3%

Over 2.5 28.8% 42.6% 2.35 -19.4%

Over 3.5 12.9% 22.2% 4.50 -25.2%

BTTS 44.4% 51.3% 1.95 -13.4%

Home O1.5 10.9% 38.5% 2.60 -43.0%

Away O1.5 20.1% 31.3% 3.20 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.4%

A 38% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 0–1 20.7%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 1–0 14.0%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta0.6

Libertad0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA · PPG 0.57

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.57), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Manta (H) 24.3%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -25.9%

Draw 37.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +21.3%

Libertad (A) 37.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta a 24% chance, the draw 38% and Libertad 38%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Manta and 0.8 for Libertad (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.75 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Manta vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions