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Leones Norte vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 16 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 22:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Macara

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-111.9%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.6%2-17.0%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 33.6% 2.98 +34.1%

Draw 31.0% 32.3% 3.10 -3.9%

Away win 24.0% 41.0% 2.44 -24.9%

Over 2.5 34.0% 40.8% 2.45 -16.7%

Over 3.5 18.7% 21.1% 4.75 -6.7%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -3.5%

Away O1.5 16.6% 36.4% 2.75 -32.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte1.1

Macara0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.86

MACARA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +34.1%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.9%

Macara (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Macara 24%, so Leones Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Leones Norte and 0.7 for Macara (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.14 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Leones Norte vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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