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Delfin vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 17 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 00:00

Delfin

PPG 1.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Emelec

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.3%0-117.1%0-24.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-110.3%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.8%2-13.1%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.2%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 37.3% 2.68 -10.2%

Draw 37.7% 32.3% 3.10 +16.9%

Away win 28.7% 37.3% 2.68 -13.9%

Over 2.5 31.7% 42.0% 2.38 -24.6%

Over 3.5 12.1% 22.2% 4.50 -27.3%

BTTS 44.6% 51.8% 1.93 -13.9%

Home O1.5 33.4% 34.7% 2.88 -3.8%

Away O1.5 18.0% 34.7% 2.88 -28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.5 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.3%

#2 1–0 19.4%

#3 0–1 17.1%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin0.6

Emelec0.5

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN · PPG 1.63

EMELEC · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=33.5%

Win probability 1X2

Delfin (H) 33.5%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -10.2%

Draw 37.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +16.9%

Emelec (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin a 34% chance, the draw 38% and Emelec 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Delfin and 0.5 for Emelec (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.71 for Emelec. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.9%.

Delfin vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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