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Tecnico U. vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:00

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Leones Norte

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-112.0%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.5%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-17.0%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 52.6% 1.90 -17.7%

Draw 32.8% 30.8% 3.25 +6.6%

Away win 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

Over 3.5 11.1% 21.1% 4.75 -28.4%

BTTS 47.1% 47.6% 2.10 -1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.1%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico U.1.1

Leones Norte0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.17

LEONES NORTE · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico U. (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -17.7%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.6%

Leones Norte (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico U. face Leones Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico U. a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Leones Norte 24%, so Tecnico U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tecnico U. and 0.7 for Leones Norte (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico U. are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.43 for Leones Norte. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Tecnico U. vs Leones Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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