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Guayaquil City vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 20:30

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

I. del Valle

PPG 2.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-117.6%0-210.6%0-34.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.5%1-112.7%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.8%2-14.5%2-22.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.1%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 19.6% 5.10 +7.3%

Draw 31.5% 27.8% 3.60 +13.4%

Away win 46.5% 59.2% 1.69 -21.4%

Over 2.5 40.2% 47.6% 2.10 -15.6%

Over 3.5 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 16.2% 23.1% 4.33 -17.9%

Away O1.5 33.9% 52.6% 1.90 -35.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 0–1 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City0.7

I. del Valle1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.29

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City (H) 22.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +7.3%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +13.4%

I. del Valle (A) 46.5%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City face I. del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City a 22% chance, the draw 32% and I. del Valle 47%, so I. del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Guayaquil City and 1.2 for I. del Valle (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.57 for I. del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 2-4.

Guayaquil City vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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