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Tammeka vs Harju JK Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Tammeka

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Harju JK

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.4%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.2% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 52.8% — — —

Home O1.5 50.8% — — —

Away O1.5 31.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka1.6

Harju JK1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.44

HARJU JK · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 52.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harju JK (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Harju JK in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Harju JK 23%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tammeka and 1.0 for Harju JK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.13 for Harju JK.

Tammeka vs Harju JK Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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