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Levadia vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 14:00

Levadia

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Draw 24.1% 25.0% 4.00 -2.2%

Away win 23.3% 14.3% 7.00 +37.9%

Over 2.5 49.5% 61.7% 1.62 -19.8%

Over 3.5 28.3% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 46.1% 69.4% 1.44 -33.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 23.1% 4.33 +12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia1.6

Nomme Kalju0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA · PPG 2.43

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.43), Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Win probability 1X2

Levadia (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.2%

Nomme Kalju (A) 23.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia face Nomme Kalju in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Nomme Kalju 23%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Levadia and 0.9 for Nomme Kalju (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.14 for Nomme Kalju. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.9%.

Levadia vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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