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Levadia vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 14:00

Levadia

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 1.40 -26.4%

Draw 24.1% 4.00 -2.2%

Away win 23.3% 7.00 +37.9%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.62 -19.8%

Over 3.5 28.3% 2.50 -17.5%

BTTS 52.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Win probability 1X2

Levadia (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.2%

Nomme Kalju (A) 23.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +37.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia1.6

Nomme Kalju0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA · PPG 2.43

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.43), Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia face Nomme Kalju in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Nomme Kalju 23%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Levadia and 0.9 for Nomme Kalju (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.14 for Nomme Kalju. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.9%.

Levadia vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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