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Paide vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 16:00

Paide

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vaprus

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.2%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-111.1%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 63.7% 1.57 -17.7%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 23.1% 20.0% 5.00 +9.3%

Over 2.5 51.1% 58.8% 1.70 -13.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 53.6% 61.7% 1.62 -13.2%

Away O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide1.8

Vaprus1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 1.63

VAPRUS · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Vaprus (A) 23.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Vaprus 23%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Paide and 1.0 for Vaprus (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Vaprus. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Paide vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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