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Levadia vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 16:00

Levadia

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flora

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.5%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 61.7% 1.62 -7.0%

Draw 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 62.5% 1.60 +1.3%

Over 3.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 57.4% 62.5% 1.60 -8.2%

Home O1.5 60.6% 63.7% 1.57 -4.9%

Away O1.5 35.3% 30.8% 3.25 +14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.4%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia2.1

Flora1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA · PPG 2.25

FLORA · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Levadia (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -7.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Flora (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Flora 20%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Levadia and 1.0 for Flora (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.88 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Levadia vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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