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Levadia vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 16:00

Levadia

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flora

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.5%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 1.62 -7.0%

Draw 22.4% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 20.1% 4.20 -9.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 1.60 +1.3%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 57.4% 1.60 -8.2%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.57 -4.9%

Away Over 1.5 35.3% 3.25 +14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.4%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia2.1

Flora1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA · PPG 2.25

FLORA · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Levadia (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -7.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Flora (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Flora 20%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Levadia and 1.0 for Flora (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.88 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Levadia vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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