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Flora vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Flora

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paide

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.8%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 2.30 +23.7%

Draw 22.4% 3.25 -16.3%

Away win 23.7% 2.75 -20.9%

Over 2.5 61.1% 1.80 +10.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% 2.75 +1.8%

BTTS 55.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Win probability 1X2

Flora (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +23.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.3%

Paide (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora2.0

Paide1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA · PPG 2.14

PAIDE · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Paide 24%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Flora and 1.1 for Paide (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.50 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.7%.

Flora vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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