Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Nomme Kalju vs Tammeka

Nomme Kalju vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 16:00

Nomme Kalju

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tammeka

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.2%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-19.9%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.5%3-15.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-14.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 1.36 -23.2%

Draw 23.3% 4.20 -1.3%

Away win 20.2% 6.50 +18.8%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.50 -25.8%

Over 3.5 28.3% 2.10 -24.3%

BTTS 48.5% 1.62 -21.4%

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Tammeka (A) 20.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju1.9

Tammeka0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 1.75

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Tammeka 20%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nomme Kalju and 0.7 for Tammeka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Tammeka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Nomme Kalju vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions