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Vaprus vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 17 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kuressaare

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.1%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.7%1-111.4%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.9%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 59.9% 1.67 -23.0%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

Over 2.5 56.0% 58.8% 1.70 -4.8%

Over 3.5 35.5% 38.2% 2.62 -7.0%

BTTS 57.6% 58.8% 1.70 -2.1%

Home O1.5 50.9% 65.4% 1.53 -22.1%

Away O1.5 38.9% 26.7% 3.75 +45.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus1.6

Kuressaare1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.25

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -23.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Kuressaare (A) 28.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Kuressaare 29%, so Vaprus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vaprus and 1.3 for Kuressaare (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Kuressaare. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +45.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Vaprus vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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