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Tammeka vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 11:30

Tammeka

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Narva Trans

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.2%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-18.8%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.4%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-15.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 1.73 +7.8%

Draw 21.1% 3.60 -14.4%

Away win 16.7% 3.90 -20.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 1.67 -16.3%

Over 3.5 29.9% 2.62 -13.0%

BTTS 48.5% 1.62 -21.4%

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +7.8%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.4%

Narva Trans (A) 16.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka2.1

Narva Trans0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.25

NARVA TRANS · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=62.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Narva Trans in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Narva Trans 17%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tammeka and 0.6 for Narva Trans (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.13 for Narva Trans. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.0%.

Tammeka vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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