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Narva Trans vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 16:00

Narva Trans

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

UPCOMING

Levadia

PPG 2.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 72.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-17.9%0-211.8%0-311.8%0-4+18.5%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.6%1-37.6%1-4+11.9%2 2-00.5%2-11.6%2-22.4%2-32.4%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 8.3% 12.00 +35.0%

Draw 17.7% 18.2% 5.50 -1.6%

Away win 69.2% 83.3% 1.20 -17.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 33.6% 20.0% 5.00 +68.0%

Away O1.5 72.5% 78.1% 1.28 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob48.5%

A 69% / xG 0.6-3.0 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.8%

#2 0–3 11.8%

#3 0–4 8.8%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva Trans0.6

Levadia3.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA TRANS · PPG 1.13

LEVADIA · PPG 2.78

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.78) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Narva Trans (H) 13.2%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +35.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -1.6%

Levadia (A) 69.2%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva Trans face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva Trans a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Levadia 69%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Narva Trans and 3.0 for Levadia (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva Trans are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.78 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +68.0%.

Narva Trans vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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