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Kuressaare vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 16:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flora

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-111.1%0-210.3%0-36.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.8%2-32.9%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 13.3% 7.50 +37.6%

Draw 23.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Away win 54.7% 76.9% 1.30 -28.9%

Over 2.5 54.1% 66.7% 1.50 -18.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

BTTS 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Home O1.5 35.2% 23.1% 4.33 +52.4%

Away O1.5 49.8% 75.2% 1.33 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 0–2 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.0

Flora1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.25

FLORA · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 21.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +37.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Flora (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Flora 55%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kuressaare and 1.9 for Flora (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +52.4%.

Kuressaare vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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