Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Kuressaare vs Flora

Kuressaare vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 16:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Flora

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-111.1%0-210.3%0-36.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.8%2-32.9%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 13.3% 7.50 +37.6%

Draw 23.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Away win 54.7% 76.9% 1.30 -28.9%

Over 2.5 54.1% 66.7% 1.50 -18.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

BTTS 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Home O1.5 35.2% 23.1% 4.33 +52.4%

Away O1.5 49.8% 75.2% 1.33 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 0–2 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.0

Flora1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.25

FLORA · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 21.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +37.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Flora (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Flora 55%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kuressaare and 1.9 for Flora (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +52.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Kuressaare vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions