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Nomme Kalju vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 14:00

Nomme Kalju

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

UPCOMING

Paide

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.6%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-112.0%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 47.6% 2.10 -1.1%

Draw 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -13.1%

Away win 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Over 2.5 49.8% 52.6% 1.90 -5.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -4.2%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

Away O1.5 33.1% 30.8% 3.25 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju1.6

Paide1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 1.56

PAIDE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.1%

Paide (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Paide 28%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nomme Kalju and 1.0 for Paide (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.67 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Nomme Kalju vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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