Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Elfsborg vs Hammarby

Elfsborg vs Hammarby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 14:30

Elfsborg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hammarby

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.2%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.3%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.2%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.6%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 27.0% 3.70 +80.6%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 26.0% 54.1% 1.85 -31.1%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 43.2% 36.4% 2.75 +18.8%

Away O1.5 35.9% 55.6% 1.80 -35.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 0–0 7.6%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elfsborg1.5

Hammarby1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ELFSBORG · PPG 2.00

HAMMARBY · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

Elfsborg (H) 48.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +80.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Hammarby (A) 26.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elfsborg face Hammarby in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elfsborg a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Hammarby 26%, so Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Elfsborg and 1.1 for Hammarby (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elfsborg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Hammarby. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +80.6%.

Elfsborg vs Hammarby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions