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Halmstad vs Vasteras Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

Halmstad

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vasteras

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.8%0-26.2%0-33.8%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.5%1-110.0%1-29.1%1-35.5%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.3%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.6%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 37.0% 2.70 -3.9%

Draw 22.0% 29.9% 3.35 -15.8%

Away win 42.5% 40.0% 2.50 +6.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 54.1% 1.85 +18.2%

Over 3.5 42.3% 32.3% 3.10 +31.1%

BTTS 63.3% 61.7% 1.62 +2.5%

Home O1.5 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halmstad1.5

Vasteras1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HALMSTAD · PPG 1.00

VASTERAS · PPG 1.80

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Halmstad (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.8%

Vasteras (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halmstad face Vasteras in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halmstad a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Vasteras 43%, so Vasteras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Halmstad and 1.8 for Vasteras (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halmstad are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Vasteras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Halmstad vs Vasteras Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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